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Articles by Hans Nilsson

The invisible good –that you can’t be without

Posted by Hans Nilsson on 26/05/08

ACEEE argues in a new report that Energy Efficiency must be more visible and it is easy to agree. Energy Efficiency is in most policy debates discussed as the counterbalance to more supply but in reality it is more difficult. Energy Efficiency is often foregone because of its invisibility. Which is a pity since energy efficiency is the most profitable and least risky of all investments you can make as the ACEEE report shows (see figure below).

Energy efficiency must be recognised …

The importance of energy efficiency is recognised to a growing extent not the least by use of cost-curves (supply curves for measures) that McKinsey has rediscovered (originally used by Amory Lovins and Clark Gellings in the 80’s) and elaborated for countries and sectors all over the world. These graphs show that there are a lot of measures that have negative costs (!) i.e. that they make the user better-off financially if they are undertaken. And many of these measures are based on technologies for energy efficiency.

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Are we doomed to inefficiency?

Posted by Hans Nilsson on 19/05/08

“The market is a good servant but a bad master”. That is at least the way an old saying has it. Often attributed to Vaclav Havel, but also to the former Danish Energy minister Svend Auken. Whoever is to take credit this saying comes to mind when reading The Economist, where the issue is brought up; why is such a good product as energy efficiency so scarcely used? The low-hanging fruit, profitable and good for the environment is just not picked.

The article arrives to the usual answer that there are some barriers. Well known and researched in detail, but still there and still hindering. So is that all? Are we doomed to being inefficient and to see the low-hanging fruit rot before our eyes instead of being picked and enjoyed? If the market can not master and can not deliver – could there be something else that fails us?

Low might be beneath the sight

Well - say some economists - there is no low-hanging fruit. If people do not make more use of energy efficient equipment it is because they have a taste for other characteristics of the goods they buy, than energy efficiency. Or that people find it to too costly to shop around for the better choice – their search and transactions costs are too high. And based on this, these economists find that the choices people have made are well-informed and revealed as the best possible. Any change should mean a loss of well-fare for the economic man.

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The Stern Tsunami moves policy ambitions

Posted by Hans Nilsson on 05/05/08

The dominating idea has for a long time been that taking action against climate change is risky business for a country and its industry. An idea underpinned by some economic thinking saying that unilateral action is at best useless and that policy measures must be strictly targeted – one problem requires one measure only. Otherwise measures will be diluted and even counterproductive. Nowadays both politicians and their advisors have a different sound. Actions may not be as costly, early actions may give an advantage and policies may be mutually supportive. Could it be the Stern review that has turned into a Stern tsunami?

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A break-through with China?

Posted by Hans Nilsson on 28/04/08

President Barroso announced an interesting shift in the Chinese attitude to the post-Kyoto agreement when visiting Beijing last week. The Chinese premier Wen Jiabao is said to have indicated that China could participate fully in an international agreement provided that the old industrialised nations promised to reduce their emission till 2020 and that a financial mechanism for technology transfer is established.

If the Chinese really will be a full and acting participant in a future international solution with mutual binding targets it is hard to imagine that the other giant, India, will stay out. The concerns are the same, not to be left with a commitment that no one else honours, and the awareness is high about needs and actions.

It will then leave us with the U.S. but the deck of cards will soon shift.

Not only climate

The EU-delegation however also discussed other issues, including the topical ones about the Olympics, Tibet and Human Rights. It is said that it is important for Chinese not to lose face and if one can trust the press-release it seems as if President Barroso and the team of commissioners have managed quite well in showing both respect and profound will.

A matter of growing concern is the Chinese presence in Africa and an EU-China-Africa partnership in development cooperation” was initiated. Such a co-operation might be interesting since the reports of the Chinese activities are a bit disturbing. Will the new co-operation mean that there will be less arms trade and less exploitation of raw materials in vulnerable African States?

Should the G8 Hokkaido decisions on climate and energy be postponed?

Posted by Hans Nilsson on 21/04/08

In just two months time (July 7-9) there will be a G8-summit in Hokkaido under the Japanese chairmanship. A month earlier there will be a preparatory meeting on energy. The chairing country have made their homework thoroughly and it looks all set for a decisive step in preparation for the post-Kyoto agreement. But still it could be more productive to hesitate and even to postpone the decisions!

The reason is the (not so) United States.

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When Climate Change ceases to be an Abstraction

Posted by Hans Nilsson on 14/04/08

We are now so used to talk about climate change in terms of policy, of technicalities, such as GHG-concentration in PPMs and of technologies/fuels that we tend to loose the sight of the object itself – the physical impact in the everyday life. The latest IPCC-report is however of great help for the understanding. What will climate change do to me?

It is about water this time

The IPCC report spells out in clinical terms what could happen to water in our life. Water when we want it for drinking, for recreation or for industry. And what could happen with water when we do not want it in rainstorms and in flooding.

As so many times before the IPCC reports are very good in transmitting their message in a way that makes it easy to understand, scientific as it may be. One observation is that the consequences of Climate Change (in water terms) seem to come closer to us in the industrialised world. It is not only something that hits poor people in distant countries, but the United States and Europe.

Water is far less abstract than millions of ppm!

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In Europe in particular the following possible consequences have been identified.

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“There is enough for everybody’s need, but not enough for anybody’s greed”

Posted by Hans Nilsson on 08/04/08

The quote is from no-one less than Mahatma Gandhi and he was in his turn quoted by the IPCC-chair, Rajendra Pachauri, when he received the Nobel Peace-prize last year. In the past the statement might have been overlooked as being a somewhat idealistic point of view, but in the light of the climate change the truth becomes very evident. The question however is what sort of conclusion we have to make and what the lessons are to be learnt.

Economic organisation

One lesson could be that we have to regard our economic organisation differently. Also in this respect we have been supplied evidence that our reliance on the market as an automatic function that just delivers, is a bit naĂŻve. It was supposed that the emission rights given to the energy suppliers should provide an incentive to reduce emission of greenhouse gases. The latest investigation made by Point Carbon and published by WWF, however shows that the windfall profits from the free allocations are high. Estimated to be in the area of 20-75 BEURO in this trading period. A sum that is paid by the customers and might give them some incentive to reduce their consumption, but not very much of an incentive to the generators. There is said to be evidence to the contrary for them. Since there are several plans to expand the use of fossil-fuelled power.

If Nobel-prizes have any significance in this matter it should be noted that the price to the founder of the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh, Dr Muhammad Yunus, could indicate a different view of organisation to be more efficient. The micro credits that this bank provides show that the force in the development from the local economies is strong. The idea is not totally unlike those of Gandhi! It seems quite imperative that the industrialised world begins to consider, not only different technologies and life-styles, but also different mind-sets!?

Europeans are prepared to rise to their responsibility

Posted by Hans Nilsson on 17/03/08

A new survey issued in the Eurobarometer investigates the attitudes of the Europeans to the environment. The survey is interesting and encouraging reading. The Europeans are distinctly prepared to rise to their responsibility towards environment and climate, and for a sustainable future. Not less than two thirds say that they consider that environmental protection to be prior to competitiveness in the industry. There is of course differences between the nations, but not as much as one could expect.

The conclusion drawn from this (and other) questions by the Eurobarometer is that the global nature of the environmental problems have permeated the Europeans. A fair conclusion since there is a consistency with the responses this time and a similar study made 4 years ago.

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Biofuel goes sky-high!

Posted by Hans Nilsson on 03/03/08

With some noise Virgin Air and Boeing announced that they were doing a commercial flight on biofuel. Well it was only a short-haul, London-Amsterdam and it was only one of four tanks that had the new fuel and it was only 20% of the blend in that one tank that came from bio. But we could assume that the passengers preferred safety to pioneering.

The Boeing competitor Airbus has announced already early February that they were flying on “biofuel” but they served themselves well with the quotation marks. The Airbus flight was from Fulton (UK) to Toulouse and had a fuel-blend 60-40, but the 40% where not real biofuel but a forerunner in the form of synthetic fuel (gas to liquid).

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A potential of 14.000 TWh! Is it time for off-shore wind to boom?

Posted by Hans Nilsson on 25/02/08

If you are Norwegian you would be inclined to say “yes” and you would also be able to show good technological evidence to support this stand-point. If you are not, you may be allowed the benefit of a doubt.  But mind you, such a doubt could be based on envy rather than facts! Because there are facts to support a very optimistic view. Let us take a brief look on the evidence! (more…)

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